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Back
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. StricklandFlyweightMain card
Joshua VanWINNER
Joshua
Van
9-1UFC
24 yrsElo 1637
VS
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro
Taira
7-2UFC
26 yrsElo 1584
Final: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
GPT
69%
Taira
Elo
58%
Van
1637 vs 1584
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'5" Height 5'7"
65" Reach 70"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
8.39 Landed / min 2.99
6.09 Absorbed / minlower better 2.69
53% Strike accuracy 60%
58% Strike defense 46%
1.62 Takedowns / 15 2.73
63% TD accuracy 44%
83% TD defense 45%
0.0 Subs / 15 1.6
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 18%GPT: Submission 41%GPT: Decision 41%
41%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 18%Submission 41%Decision 41%
Formnewest first
Joshua Van153 days out
W
Alexandre Pantoja
KO/TKO · 2025-12-06
W
Brandon Royval
U-DEC · 2025-06-28
W
Bruno Silva
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-06-07
W
Rei Tsuruya
U-DEC · 2025-03-08
W
Cody Durden
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
Tatsuro Taira153 days out
W
Brandon Moreno
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-12-06
L
Brandon Royval
S-DEC · 2024-04-27
L
Brandon Royval
S-DEC · 2024-04-20
W
Alex Perez
KO/TKO · 2024-01-13
W
Carlos Hernandez
KO/TKO · 2023-12-09
Why
GPT
Tatsuro Taira
69% · Submission
  • Taira's much higher submission output (1.6 subs per 15 vs. 0 for Van) and proven back-taking ability give him a clear finishing edge on the mat.
  • Van's aggressive 8.39 SLpM with 53% accuracy also means 6.09 SApM, leaving openings for level changes and clinch entries from Taira.
  • Taira's 2.73 takedowns per 15 and strong top control historically contrast with Van's more strike-centric approach, making extended grappling sequences more favorable to Taira over three rounds.
Write-up

Van's pace, volume, and takedown defense make him dangerous early, but his high strike absorption and defensive openings give Taira plenty of entries to clinch, chain wrestle, and create back-take/scramble scenarios. Taira's superior submission threat and top control, combined with Van's willingness to exchange and stand tall in the pocket, favor Taira dragging this into grappling sequences where his finishing rate and positional awareness are significantly higher.