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Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira

Flyweight · Main card · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

FINAL: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Joshua Van
Joshua Van
Age 24 · Elo 1624
WWWWW
153 days since last fight
vs
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira
Age 26 · Elo 1584
WLLWW
153 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
GPT GPT: Joshua Van 31% GPT: Tatsuro Taira 69% 31% 69% Elo Elo: Joshua Van 56% Elo: Tatsuro Taira 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
Strikes landed / min Joshua Van Strikes landed / min: 8.39 8.39 Tatsuro Taira Strikes landed / min: 2.99 2.99 Strikes absorbed / min Joshua Van Strikes absorbed / min: 6.09 6.09 Tatsuro Taira Strikes absorbed / min: 2.69 2.69 Striking accuracy Joshua Van Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Tatsuro Taira Striking accuracy: 60% 60% Striking defense Joshua Van Striking defense: 58% 58% Tatsuro Taira Striking defense: 46% 46% Takedowns / 15 min Joshua Van Takedowns / 15 min: 1.62 1.62 Tatsuro Taira Takedowns / 15 min: 2.73 2.73 Takedown defense Joshua Van Takedown defense: 83% 83% Tatsuro Taira Takedown defense: 45% 45% Sub attempts / 15 min Joshua Van Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Tatsuro Taira Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 41% 41% GPT: Decision 41% 41%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Tatsuro Taira by Submission, 69% confidence

Van's pace, volume, and takedown defense make him dangerous early, but his high strike absorption and defensive openings give Taira plenty of entries to clinch, chain wrestle, and create back-take/scramble scenarios. Taira's superior submission threat and top control, combined with Van's willingness to exchange and stand tall in the pocket, favor Taira dragging this into grappling sequences where his finishing rate and positional awareness are significantly higher.