Flyweight · Main card · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
FINAL: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Joshua Van
Age 24 · Elo 1624
WWWWW
153 days since last fight
vs
Tatsuro Taira
Age 26 · Elo 1584
WLLWW
153 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
GPT
Tatsuro Taira by Submission, 69% confidence
Van's pace, volume, and takedown defense make him dangerous early, but his high strike absorption and defensive openings give Taira plenty of entries to clinch, chain wrestle, and create back-take/scramble scenarios. Taira's superior submission threat and top control, combined with Van's willingness to exchange and stand tall in the pocket, favor Taira dragging this into grappling sequences where his finishing rate and positional awareness are significantly higher.