Luque's higher strike volume, superior accuracy, and stronger submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Gastelum is historically durable with solid boxing defense and wrestling, which should let him survive Luque's power and opportunistic submissions, but his lower output and less potent finishing ability at this stage likely see him edged on volume and damage. Luque's more diverse offense (kicks, elbows, clinch work, grappling) combined with a slight grappling edge and better finishing instincts tilt the matchup in his favor, though Gastelum's chin and takedown ability make a late finish less likely and push the outcome toward a competitive decision.