Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Luque's higher strike volume, superior accuracy, and stronger submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Gastelum is historically durable with solid boxing defense and wrestling, which should let him survive Luque's power and opportunistic submissions, but his lower output and less potent finishing ability at this stage likely see him edged on volume and damage. Luque's more diverse offense (kicks, elbows, clinch work, grappling) combined with a slight grappling edge and better finishing instincts tilt the matchup in his favor, though Gastelum's chin and takedown ability make a late finish less likely and push the outcome toward a competitive decision.