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Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg

FINAL: Mateusz Gamrot by SUB Arm Triangle
Mateusz Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot
Age 35 · Elo 1609
LWLWW
182 days since last fight
vs
Esteban Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics
Age 29 · Elo 1533
LWWWL
405 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Mateusz GamrotEsteban Ribovics
GPT GPT: Mateusz Gamrot 78% GPT: Esteban Ribovics 22% 78% 22% Elo Elo: Mateusz Gamrot 61% Elo: Esteban Ribovics 39% 61% 39%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Mateusz GamrotEsteban Ribovics
Strikes landed / min Mateusz Gamrot Strikes landed / min: 3.23 3.23 Esteban Ribovics Strikes landed / min: 7.27 7.27 Strikes absorbed / min Mateusz Gamrot Strikes absorbed / min: 3.22 3.22 Esteban Ribovics Strikes absorbed / min: 5.83 5.83 Striking accuracy Mateusz Gamrot Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Esteban Ribovics Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Striking defense Mateusz Gamrot Striking defense: 58% 58% Esteban Ribovics Striking defense: 54% 54% Takedowns / 15 min Mateusz Gamrot Takedowns / 15 min: 5.25 5.25 Esteban Ribovics Takedowns / 15 min: 0.35 0.35 Takedown defense Mateusz Gamrot Takedown defense: 90% 90% Esteban Ribovics Takedown defense: 66% 66% Sub attempts / 15 min Mateusz Gamrot Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Esteban Ribovics Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 22% 22% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision, 78% confidence

Gamrot's elite wrestling volume (5.25 TDs per 15, 35% accuracy) combined with 90% takedown defense and strong top control historically gives him a clear path to neutralize Ribovics' high-pace striking. Ribovics throws far more (7.53 SLpM, +2.58 differential) but relies on extended striking exchanges and has shown exploitable takedown defense (61%) and defensive grappling. Over three rounds, Gamrot is likely to repeatedly time entries off Ribovics' forward pressure, chain-wrestle to the mat, and bank control time and short ground-and-pound. Ribovics is dangerous early and has power plus opportunistic submissions, but Gamrot's experience against higher-level competition, cardio, and scramble acumen should allow him to survive any early flurries and systematically grind out rounds rather than chase a risky finish.