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UFC 327: Prochazka vs. UlbergLight HeavyweightMain card
Dominick ReyesWINNER
Dominick
Reyes
9-5UFC
36 yrsElo 1615
VS
Johnny Walker
Johnny
Walker
8-7UFC
34 yrsElo 1550
Final: Dominick Reyes by S-DEC
Who wins
GPT
63%
Reyes
Elo
59%
Reyes
1615 vs 1550
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'4" Height 6'6"
77" Reach 82"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
4.87 Landed / min 3.87
3.75 Absorbed / minlower better 3.12
50% Strike accuracy 53%
48% Strike defense 44%
0.35 Takedowns / 15 0.45
28% TD accuracy 100%
80% TD defense 57%
0.3 Subs / 15 0.9
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 54%GPT: Submission 6%GPT: Decision 40%
54%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 54%Submission 6%Decision 40%
Formnewest first
Dominick Reyes196 days out
L
Carlos Ulberg
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-09-27
W
Nikita Krylov
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-04-12
W
Anthony Smith
KO/TKO Punches · 2024-12-07
W
Dustin Jacoby
KO/TKO · 2024-01-06
L
Ryan Spann
KO/TKO · 2022-11-12
Johnny Walker231 days out
W
Zhang Mingyang
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-08-23
L
Volkan Oezdemir
KO/TKO · 2024-01-20
L
Magomed Ankalaev
KO/TKO · 2024-01-13
L
Magomed Ankalaev
CNC · 2023-10-21
W
Anthony Smith
U-DEC · 2023-05-13
Why
GPT
Dominick Reyes
63% · KO/TKO
  • Reyes has higher volume (4.87 SLpM vs 3.87) and better strike differential (1.12 vs 0.75), suggesting he wins most structured striking exchanges.
  • Walker's defensive metrics (44% striking defense, 57% TD defense) and tendency to be wild create clean counter opportunities for Reyes' southpaw boxing.
  • Reyes' 80% takedown defense and historically solid anti-wrestling reduce Walker's ability to leverage his 100% TD accuracy and higher submission rate (0.9 sub avg).
Write-up

Reyes is the cleaner, more structured striker with higher output and better defensive metrics, and his 80% takedown defense limits Walker's opportunistic wrestling/grappling. Walker is dangerous and explosive early, but his defensive lapses, lower strike differential, and historical inconsistency against composed counter-strikers favor Reyes if his durability holds. Reyes' southpaw straight left and counters should find openings as Walker overextends, making a mid-fight KO/TKO slightly more likely than a decision in this volatile matchup.