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Dominick Reyes vs Johnny Walker

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg

FINAL: Dominick Reyes by S-DEC
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
Age 36 · Elo 1601
LWWWL
196 days since last fight
vs
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Age 34 · Elo 1535
WLLLW
231 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Dominick ReyesJohnny Walker
GPT GPT: Dominick Reyes 63% GPT: Johnny Walker 37% 63% 37% Elo Elo: Dominick Reyes 59% Elo: Johnny Walker 41% 59% 41%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Dominick ReyesJohnny Walker
Strikes landed / min Dominick Reyes Strikes landed / min: 4.87 4.87 Johnny Walker Strikes landed / min: 3.87 3.87 Strikes absorbed / min Dominick Reyes Strikes absorbed / min: 3.75 3.75 Johnny Walker Strikes absorbed / min: 3.12 3.12 Striking accuracy Dominick Reyes Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Johnny Walker Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Dominick Reyes Striking defense: 48% 48% Johnny Walker Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Dominick Reyes Takedowns / 15 min: 0.35 0.35 Johnny Walker Takedowns / 15 min: 0.45 0.45 Takedown defense Dominick Reyes Takedown defense: 80% 80% Johnny Walker Takedown defense: 57% 57% Sub attempts / 15 min Dominick Reyes Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Johnny Walker Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.9 0.9

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 54% 54% GPT: Submission 6% GPT: Decision 40% 40%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO, 63% confidence

Reyes is the cleaner, more structured striker with higher output and better defensive metrics, and his 80% takedown defense limits Walker's opportunistic wrestling/grappling. Walker is dangerous and explosive early, but his defensive lapses, lower strike differential, and historical inconsistency against composed counter-strikers favor Reyes if his durability holds. Reyes' southpaw straight left and counters should find openings as Walker overextends, making a mid-fight KO/TKO slightly more likely than a decision in this volatile matchup.