Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a rare elite-wrestler vs elite-wrestler heavyweight matchup. Blaydes brings proven 5-round UFC experience, top-10 heavyweight wins, and a well-developed striking game behind his wrestling base. Hokit's gaudy stats (14.75 TDs per fight, +3.28 strike differential, 77% accuracy) are inflated by a tiny sample against lower-tier opposition; he has never faced a wrestler of Blaydes' size, experience, or chain-wrestling depth. Both men are dominant takedown artists, which often leads to extended striking phases. In that phase, Blaydes' superior jab, low kicks, and comfort at range, plus a 7-inch reach edge in his favor per matchup data, give him the edge. Defensively, Blaydes' 58% striking defense and strong top control historically limit opponents' damage, while Hokit's 0% takedown defense suggests he has not yet been tested off his back. Expect early wrestling exchanges to partially neutralize each other, with Blaydes mixing reactive shots and clinch entries to bank control time and top position. Hokit's pace may slow at heavyweight over three hard rounds against a larger, more seasoned wrestler. Blaydes' history of late-fight cardio in wrestling-heavy bouts and his ability to adjust mid-fight point toward him edging rounds with control, ground-and-pound, and cleaner stand-up. Hokit's primary path is overwhelming wrestling volume and top control, but against a heavyweight wrestling specialist with proven durability and experience, that path is much narrower.