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Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr

Featherweight · Prelims · UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg

FINAL: Cub Swanson by KO/TKO Punch
Cub Swanson
Cub Swanson
Age 42 · Elo 1590
WLWLW
482 days since last fight
vs
Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
Age 37 · Elo 1498
LLWLW
273 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Cub SwansonNate Landwehr
GPT GPT: Cub Swanson 32% GPT: Nate Landwehr 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Cub Swanson 63% Elo: Nate Landwehr 37% 63% 37%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Cub SwansonNate Landwehr
Strikes landed / min Cub Swanson Strikes landed / min: 4.67 4.67 Nate Landwehr Strikes landed / min: 5.55 5.55 Strikes absorbed / min Cub Swanson Strikes absorbed / min: 3.86 3.86 Nate Landwehr Strikes absorbed / min: 5.96 5.96 Striking accuracy Cub Swanson Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Nate Landwehr Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense Cub Swanson Striking defense: 59% 59% Nate Landwehr Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Cub Swanson Takedowns / 15 min: 1.04 1.04 Nate Landwehr Takedowns / 15 min: 0.73 0.73 Takedown defense Cub Swanson Takedown defense: 63% 63% Nate Landwehr Takedown defense: 71% 71% Sub attempts / 15 min Cub Swanson Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Nate Landwehr Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 32% 32% GPT: Submission 13% 13% GPT: Decision 55% 55%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Nate Landwehr by Decision, 68% confidence

Landwehr's higher output, better recent durability, and strong takedown defense should allow him to pressure Swanson over three rounds. Swanson is the cleaner technician with superior shot selection and counters, but his age, accumulated damage, and declining speed make it harder to win a sustained volume war against a younger, relentless pressure fighter who can mix in clinch and occasional takedowns. Landwehr's pace and cardio give him the edge in close rounds, especially if Swanson slows late.