Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Padilla shows strong offensive numbers with high striking and takedown accuracy, but his 0% takedown defense and low striking defense are major red flags against a cleaner, more defensively sound striker like Mederos. Mederos has the reach edge, better strike differential, and 90% takedown defense, which should allow him to keep the fight standing and exploit Padilla's defensive gaps over three rounds. Unless Padilla can consistently wrestle through that initial layer of takedown defense, Mederos' range management and defensive efficiency should carry him on the cards.