Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Murzakanov is the more efficient, defensively sound striker with a positive differential (4.72 SLpM vs 2.90 SApM) and 61% striking defense, compared to Costa's negative differential (6.22 SLpM vs 6.56 SApM) and porous 49% defense. Costa's style relies on high-pressure, high-output exchanges where he willingly absorbs damage, which plays directly into Azamat's sharp counters and power. Costa's physical edges (height/reach) and volume are offset by his declining durability and defensive lapses; over three rounds, the more compact, explosive southpaw should find clean counters as Costa pressures in straight lines. Takedowns are unlikely to be a major factor, but Murzakanov's 83% TD defense suggests he can keep it standing, where his accuracy and shot selection give him the better finishing upside.