Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Fernandez's undefeated 6-0 record with diverse finishes (TKO/SUB) showcases elite finishing ability. His astronomical 32 SLPM with 100% accuracy (limited data but telling) suggests explosive offensive output. Bellato's recent form concerns are significant - a loss to Navajo Stirling and draw with Jimmy Crute indicate declining performance. The 25.53 striking volume differential heavily favors Fernandez. Bellato's 44% striking defense is vulnerable against Fernandez's power, evidenced by recent TKO wins over Pergentino and Ellis.

Fernandez's stats are clearly from an ultra-small or corrupted sample (32 SLpM, 100% accuracy and defense), offering no reliable read on his true level. Bellato, by contrast, has established UFC-level metrics: high offensive output (6.47 SLpM at 61% accuracy), proven durability in wild exchanges, and a functional takedown/submission game. Fernandez would need to be an elite, defensively sound out-fighter to consistently punish Bellato's porous striking defense (44%) while surviving his pressure and grappling threats. Given Bellato's experience against strong competition and his ability to win chaotic, high-variance fights, he is more likely to overwhelm a largely unproven Fernandez with pace, power, and top pressure leading to a stoppage.