Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Aguilar's 4-1 recent record and 80% career win rate contrast sharply with Sumudaerji's 2-3 recent form and submission vulnerability (lost via sub to Elliott and Schnell). While Sumudaerji has striking volume advantage (4.72 vs 1.46 SLPM), Aguilar's superior grappling threat and better recent form give him control options. Aguilar's momentum from recent wins and Sumudaerji's 10-inch reach disadvantage in close exchanges favor the Mexican fighter.

Sumudaerji's much higher striking volume, efficiency, and 10-inch reach advantage should allow him to keep this largely at kicking and boxing range, punishing Aguilar's predictable entries. Aguilar's path is heavily grappling/submission-based, but his low takedown accuracy and very poor takedown defense historically suggest he struggles to control where fights take place against longer, sharper strikers. Over three rounds, the most likely scenario is Aguilar getting stuck at the end of Sumudaerji's straight shots and kicks, with increasing damage leading to a late standing TKO or accumulation-based stoppage; if Aguilar survives, Sumudaerji still projects to clearly outland him for a decision.