Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Garbrandt's decline is evident with 3 losses in his last 5 fights, including being finished twice. Xiao Long's superior striking volume (4.98 vs 2.98 SLPM) and better accuracy (52% vs 40%) create a significant output advantage. Long's 5-inch reach advantage despite same height allows him to control range against the aggressive Garbrandt. Cody's chin deterioration shown in recent KO loss to Kara-France and submission to Figueiredo suggests vulnerability. Long's youth (26 vs 34) and fresher chin should allow him to weather early storms and take over.

Xiao Long's significantly higher striking volume and accuracy (4.98 SLpM at 52%) combined with a positive striking differential give him a strong statistical edge over Garbrandt, whose numbers show a negative differential and lower output. Garbrandt still has elite speed and power, but his durability and tendency to get drawn into exchanges against a higher-volume striker with a 5-inch reach advantage create risk over three rounds. Both have solid takedown defense, suggesting a largely stand-up fight where Xiao Long's activity and accuracy are more likely to sway the judges, while Garbrandt's best path is a counter KO that is less reliable over time.