Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Tumendemberel's 9-1 record with recent submission wins over Saeteurn and Danesoe showcases his dangerous ground game. Durden has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, including submissions to Nascimento and Silva. Tumendemberel's 4-inch reach advantage and superior submission rate (3.7 vs 0.9) combined with Durden's poor 14% takedown defense creates a clear path to victory. The Mongolian's youth and momentum advantage seal the prediction.

Durden has the more proven UFC resume and a strong wrestling base with solid takedown defense (73%), which is a key counter to Tumendemberel's submission-heavy grappling profile (3.7 subs per 15 with just 14% TD defense). While Tumendemberel throws higher volume and is dangerous in scrambles, that low takedown defense suggests he can be grounded consistently by a disciplined wrestler. Durden's 50% TD accuracy and 4.36 TDs per 15 indicate he can dictate where the fight takes place, rack up control time, and neutralize many of Tumendemberel's submission attempts with top pressure and positional awareness. Given Durden's typical approach and durability, a control-heavy, grinding decision is more likely than a finish on either side.