Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Holloway's elite volume striking (7.17 SLPM vs 3.4), superior striking defense (59% vs 49%), and exceptional takedown defense (84%) create a nightmare matchup for Oliveira. Max's 5-inch reach disadvantage is mitigated by his footwork and pressure fighting style. Their common opponent analysis heavily favors Holloway (6-2 vs 4-4 record), particularly his KO victory over Gaethje compared to Oliveira's submission. Holloway's recent form at lightweight (KO win) and his ability to maintain pace for 25 minutes will overwhelm Oliveira's lower output style.

Holloway's historically elite volume (7.17 SLpM) and durability, combined with superior strike differential and takedown defense (84%), make it likely he keeps the fight standing at a high pace where Oliveira's lower output and more porous defense (49% StrDef, 3.21 SApM) are exposed over five rounds. Oliveira's submission threat and improved boxing remain live early, but over extended minutes Holloway's cardio, pressure, and defensive grappling historically blunt Oliveira's wrestling (40% TDAcc) and reduce his submission opportunities, pointing toward a high-output Holloway decision with some late-fight finish equity.