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UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2MiddleweightMain card
Caio BorralhoWINNER
Caio
Borralho
7-1UFC
33 yrsElo 1618
VS
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de
Ridder
2-2UFC
35 yrsElo 1532
Final: Caio Borralho by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
82%
Borralho
GPT
63%
Borralho
Elo
62%
Borralho
1618 vs 1532
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'1" Height 6'4"
75" Reach 78"
Southpaw Stance Southpaw
3.61 Landed / min 2.47
2.34 Absorbed / minlower better 2.36
60% Strike accuracy 48%
62% Strike defense 46%
1.56 Takedowns / 15 2.56
60% TD accuracy 29%
76% TD defense 40%
0.5 Subs / 15 0.6
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 65%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 18%GPT: Submission 19%GPT: Decision 63%
63%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 19%Decision 63%
Formnewest first
Caio Borralho182 days out
L
Nassourdine Imavov
U-DEC · 2025-09-06
W
Jared Cannonier
U-DEC · 2024-03-16
W
Paul Craig
KO/TKO · 2023-12-09
W
Abus Magomedov
U-DEC · 2023-11-04
W
Michal Oleksiejczuk
SUB · 2023-04-29
Reinier de Ridder140 days out
L
Brendan Allen
KO/TKO · 2025-10-18
W
Bo Nickal
KO/TKO Knee · 2025-05-03
W
Kevin Holland
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-01-18
L
win
· 2024-11-09
Why
Claude
Caio Borralho
82% · KO/TKO
  • Complete statistical dominance with 3.61 SLPM vs 0 recorded strikes
  • Proven UFC finishing ability with recent KO victories
  • 76% takedown defense neutralizes potential grappling threats
  • De Ridder's 0-1 UFC record and downward trend indicate readiness issues
Write-up

Borralho enters with massive advantages across all metrics against a UFC debutant. His 100% UFC win rate, recent KO victories, and complete striking dominance (3.61 SLPM, 60% accuracy, 62% defense) face de Ridder who has zero UFC statistics and is coming off a loss. Borralho's southpaw stance, 75-inch reach, and proven UFC-level striking will overwhelm de Ridder's unknown capabilities. The lack of any meaningful data on de Ridder combined with Borralho's finishing ability makes this a severe mismatch.

GPT
Caio Borralho
63% · Decision
  • Borralho's established UFC stats: 60% striking accuracy, positive strike differential, and 76% takedown defense indicate efficiency and low-risk, high-control style.
  • De Ridder's primary win condition is grappling, but he faces a defensively responsible, physically strong opponent who can both stuff takedowns and initiate his own when advantageous.
  • Stylistically, Borralho's measured pace and preference for control over chaos favors a scorecard win against a debuting fighter adjusting to UFC pacing, cage size, and opposition level.
Write-up

Borralho has proven, efficient UFC metrics with high striking and takedown accuracy plus strong defensive numbers, which should allow him to control range and dictate where the fight takes place. De Ridder's elite grappling background from ONE makes him dangerous on the mat, but entering the UFC with no Octagon data and likely facing a more polished, defensively sound athlete over five rounds leans this toward Borralho outworking him with cleaner stand-up, better anti-wrestling, and positional awareness rather than taking big risks on the ground.