Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Rodrigues holds significant physical advantages with a 5-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage. His superior striking volume (5.52 vs 4.99 SLPM) combined with better accuracy (56% vs 54%) creates consistent pressure. Ferreira's recent submission losses to Abus Magomedov expose vulnerability when hurt, and Rodrigues' 80% win rate with recent KO victories over ranked competition suggests he'll find the finish. Ferreira's impressive wins over Vettori and Petrosyan show his ceiling, but Rodrigues' physicality and pressure should overwhelm him.

Rodrigues has higher striking volume, slightly better accuracy, and a small but real physical edge, while also owning a large grappling advantage with 2.74 TDs per fight at 41% accuracy and 100% takedown defense. Ferreira is explosive but more one-note, with low takedown accuracy and only average defensive metrics. Over three rounds, Rodrigues' combination of pressure boxing, clinch work, and the ability to mix in takedowns should create more scoring and finishing opportunities, with Ferreira's defensive gaps and willingness to trade favoring Rodrigues in extended exchanges.