Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Montes' exceptional submission rate (4 of last 5 wins by submission) and 9.8 subs per 15 minutes presents a massive threat to Turcios, who has been submitted twice recently including by Raul Rosas Jr. Turcios' 45% takedown defense and recent struggles against grapplers make him vulnerable to Montes' relentless submission hunting. While Turcios has better UFC experience, Montes' 90% win rate and finishing ability give him the edge.

Montes shows far greater finishing aggression on the mat with an extremely high submissions-per-fight rate and superior striking accuracy, while Turcios has historically porous takedown defense and relies more on pace than control. Montes' combination of efficient offense (higher effective strike rate, better striking accuracy, and better defensive metrics) with a massive submission threat profiles well against Turcios' scrambling style, making a club-and-sub or opportunistic submission the most likely outcome over three rounds.