Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Tuivasa is on a devastating 5-fight losing streak, with 4 of those losses coming by finish. His striking defense has completely deteriorated (44%), and he's absorbing 5.18 significant strikes per minute. Teixeira brings an 8-inch reach advantage and exceptional striking volume (14.87 SLPM) with better accuracy (54% vs 46%). While Teixeira lost to Derrick Lewis by TKO, his 4-fight TKO winning streak before that shows legitimate finishing power. The massive reach advantage combined with Tuivasa's defensive vulnerabilities and chin degradation makes this a nightmare matchup for the Australian, even at home.

Teixeira's numbers, even if inflated by a small sample, indicate far higher output, better accuracy, and better strike differential than Tuivasa. Tuivasa's defensive metrics (high damage absorbed, low strike defense, limited wrestling) make him vulnerable to a volume-based, accurate striker with a substantial reach advantage. Unless Tuivasa lands an early counter, Teixeira's southpaw pressure and length should allow him to win the exchanges and likely force a stoppage.