Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Ruffy's undefeated UFC record (100% win rate) showcases superior striking efficiency with 59% accuracy vs Fiziev's 51%. The 4-inch reach advantage (75" vs 71") and better defensive metrics (59% vs 49%) create a stylistic nightmare for Fiziev. Ruffy's +1.08 strike differential compared to Fiziev's -0.07 indicates superior offensive output while taking less damage. Fiziev's recent 1-2 record with losses to Gaethje and Gamrot suggests vulnerability to pressure fighters like Ruffy.

Despite Ruffy's cleaner early UFC stats, Fiziev's proven elite-level striking against top-10 lightweights, superior experience over 3-5 hard rounds, and historically excellent takedown defense favor him in a primarily stand-up fight. Ruffy's defensive numbers and accuracy suggest he is dangerous and efficient, but they are built on a smaller, lower-tier sample. Over time, Fiziev's pace, body-kicking game, and shot selection should create decisive damage and either a late stoppage or clear scorecards.