Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This matchup features two strikers with similar offensive output but Szalay holds significant defensive advantages. His 71% striking defense compared to Nakamura's 66% is crucial in a striker vs striker matchup. Szalay's superior striking differential of +2.98 vs Nakamura's +1.83 indicates better overall efficiency. The southpaw-orthodox dynamic favors Szalay who maintains better defense while landing at similar accuracy (44% vs 43%). Nakamura's 4-inch height and reach advantages are mitigated by Szalay's superior defensive metrics and strike absorption rate (1.27 SApM vs 3.39 SApM).

Szalay shows superior defensive metrics with lower strikes absorbed per minute and higher strike defense while maintaining comparable offensive output and slightly better accuracy. Combined with a small reach edge and similar takedown defense on both sides, this projects as a primarily striking battle where Szalay's defense and shot selection allow him to edge rounds in a higher-volume but measured affair rather than produce a consistent finishing threat.