Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Elliott's massive striking volume advantage (3.82 vs 0.33 SLPM) and superior defense (61% vs 16%) create an overwhelming stylistic mismatch. Micallef's 5 submissions per fight average is concerning, but Elliott's 72% takedown defense and striking dominance should keep the fight standing. Elliott's 3-1 UFC record demonstrates proven ability at this level.

Elliott has a massive proven edge in striking volume and efficiency (3.82 SLpM vs 0.33, +1.58 vs -1.33 differential) plus clearly better defense (61% vs 16%). While Micallef's stats suggest strong offensive grappling potential (4.97 TD avg, 5.0 subs per 15), they are based on a tiny, unreliable sample and his striking/defensive metrics are extremely poor. Elliott's 72% takedown defense and solid offensive wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place, stuff enough entries, and win rounds with superior output and cleaner shots. Micallef's main path is an early grappling swarm or opportunistic submission, but Elliott's defensive metrics and experience favor him surviving those spots and pulling away over three rounds.