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Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2

FINAL: Jacob Malkoun by U-DEC
Jacob Malkoun
Jacob Malkoun
Age 30 · Elo 1540
WLWLW
672 days since last fight
vs
Torrez Finney
Torrez Finney
Age 27 · Elo 1499*
W
301 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jacob MalkounTorrez Finney
Claude Claude: Jacob Malkoun 72% Claude: Torrez Finney 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Jacob Malkoun 32% GPT: Torrez Finney 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Jacob Malkoun 56% Elo: Torrez Finney 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jacob MalkounTorrez Finney
Strikes landed / min Jacob Malkoun Strikes landed / min: 3.86 3.86 Torrez Finney Strikes landed / min: 2.60 2.60 Strikes absorbed / min Jacob Malkoun Strikes absorbed / min: 2.48 2.48 Torrez Finney Strikes absorbed / min: 1.86 1.86 Striking accuracy Jacob Malkoun Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Torrez Finney Striking accuracy: 70% 70% Striking defense Jacob Malkoun Striking defense: 52% 52% Torrez Finney Striking defense: 50% 50% Takedowns / 15 min Jacob Malkoun Takedowns / 15 min: 6.62 6.62 Torrez Finney Takedowns / 15 min: 10.04 10.04 Takedown defense Jacob Malkoun Takedown defense: 20% 20% Torrez Finney Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Jacob Malkoun Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Torrez Finney Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.7 1.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 27% 27% GPT: Decision 55% 55%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Jacob Malkoun by Decision, 72% confidence

Malkoun's recent KO victory shows improved striking power, while maintaining his wrestling-heavy approach. Finney's 0% takedown defense is extremely concerning against Malkoun's 6.62 takedowns per fight. Malkoun's superior striking defense (52% vs 50%) and experience in the UFC give him clear paths to victory through either ground control or improved striking.

GPT
Torrez Finney by Decision, 68% confidence

Both are wrestle-grapplers, but Finney's numbers indicate a more explosive and efficient takedown game (10.0 TDs/fight at 69% vs. 6.6 at 42%) combined with higher striking accuracy and slightly better strike differential. Malkoun's historically porous takedown defense (20%) suggests he may be forced to work off his back more than usual, limiting his own top-control heavy style. Finney's higher submission rate per fight implies greater finishing threat on the mat, but Malkoun's durability and experience at UFC level make a grinding, control-heavy decision for Finney the most likely outcome.