- Rowston's 28% takedown defense vs Brundage's 2.31 takedowns landed per fight
- Brundage's 0.9 submission attempts per fight threatens Rowston despite recent sub loss
- 6-inch reach disadvantage negated by Brundage's wrestling entries
- Brundage's 36.36% UFC win rate still exceeds Rowston's 0% in the organization
Write-up
Despite Rowston's 6-inch reach advantage and superior striking defense (47% vs 41%), Brundage's wrestling (2.31 takedowns per fight at 50% accuracy) should control this fight. Rowston's abysmal 28% takedown defense is the key vulnerability Brundage will exploit. While Brundage is on a downward trend, his grappling-heavy approach matches perfectly against Rowston's defensive wrestling liability.
- Major wrestling advantage for Brundage: 2.31 TDs per 15 at 50% vs Rowston's 0 TDs and 28% TD defense
- Rowston's low striking volume (2.13 SLpM) makes it harder to punish Brundage's entries before the takedown
- Both have some submission threat, but Brundage is more proven in prolonged grappling sequences against UFC-level opposition
Write-up
Brundage has a large wrestling and grappling edge (2.31 TDs per 15 with 50% accuracy vs Rowston's 28% TD defense). Rowston's numbers suggest a low-volume, relatively efficient striker with no offensive wrestling, which is a poor profile against a physically strong, takedown-focused opponent. Brundage's submission rate (0.9 per 15) plus Rowston's weak defensive grappling metrics point to extended top control with a strong chance of a finish on the mat if Rowston cannot consistently scramble up.