Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Saint Denis' recent form shows vulnerability to strikes, losing 3 of his last 5 by KO/TKO. Hooker's superior striking defense (51% vs 41%) and reach advantage (75" vs 73") allow him to maintain distance and pick apart BSD. Saint Denis averages 4.98 strikes absorbed per minute with only 41% defense, creating clear openings for Hooker's power shots. BSD's aggressive grappling (3.97 TD avg) leaves him exposed to counters, and Hooker's 78% TDD neutralizes the wrestling threat.

Saint Denis' relentless pressure, nearly 4 takedowns per fight, and far higher submission rate (1.2 per fight) create a stylistic squeeze on Hooker, whose game is built around distance striking and strong but not impenetrable takedown defense (78%). Hooker has the cleaner, more efficient striking and slight physical edge, but his tendency to engage in wars and his accumulated damage history make prolonged exchanges with a southpaw pressure grappler dangerous. Over three rounds, the volume and wrestling pace of Saint Denis are likely to break down Hooker's defensive layers, forcing scrambles where Saint Denis' opportunistic submissions become a major factor, especially once Hooker slows from defensive wrestling and body work.