Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This rematch heavily favors Volkanovski based on their first encounter where he won by decision. Volkanovski's superior striking accuracy (56% vs 53%), defensive metrics (58% vs 50%), and significant strike differential (+2.72 vs +0.09) create a clear technical advantage. The 5-inch height disadvantage for Volkanovski is mitigated by his proven ability to close distance and land at higher percentages. Lopes' submission threat (2.8 sub avg) is neutralized by Volkanovski's 70% TDD and championship-level grappling defense.

Volkanovski's superior striking metrics (higher SLPM, better accuracy, and stronger strike differential) combined with significantly better defensive numbers and proven five-round pacing should allow him to control the majority of the minutes. Lopes is the far more dangerous submission threat, but his lower striking defense and higher damage intake per minute make it difficult to consistently win rounds without securing dominant grappling positions. Over five rounds, Volk's footwork, feints, and tactical wrestling (offensively and defensively) should limit Lopes' submission opportunities and produce a volume- and control-based decision.