Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Tau's superior striking metrics create a significant advantage in this flyweight matchup. His 56% striking accuracy compared to Batbayar's 39% represents a massive 17% differential. Combined with better volume (5.07 vs 3.5 SLPM) and superior defense (58% vs 45%), Tau should control the striking exchanges. While Batbayar averages 2.15 takedowns per fight, Tau's 54% takedown defense and switch stance versatility should help him stay upright. The 10-pound weight advantage for Tau at 135lbs suggests better strength in the clinch. Batbayar's submission average of 1.1 per fight is concerning, but with limited UFC data available, this appears inflated from regional competition.

Batbayar's consistent takedown output (2.15 per fight) and active submission game (1.1 subs per fight) line up well against Tau's mediocre 54% takedown defense and complete lack of offensive wrestling. Tau is the more efficient and higher-volume striker with better defense, but with no grappling threat and only a small striking differential edge, he's likely to be put on his back repeatedly. Batbayar's lower striking accuracy and defense are offset by the control time and positional dominance he can generate once he gets inside Tau's reach. Over three rounds, the cumulative wrestling and top control favor Batbayar on the cards, though Tau's striking edge and Batbayar's porous striking defense keep a KO/TKO threat live.