Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

O'Malley's significant reach advantage (72" vs 67") and superior striking metrics make him the clear favorite. His 6.7 SLPM with 61% accuracy dwarfs Song's 4.49 SLPM at 43% accuracy. Their common opponent analysis is telling - O'Malley defeated Yan while Song lost, and both beat Vera. O'Malley's movement and distance management have improved dramatically since the Dvalishvili losses. Song's power is his equalizer, but O'Malley's 60% striking defense and footwork should keep him safe while he pieces up Song from range.

O'Malley's superior striking efficiency (6.7 SLpM at 61% vs 4.49 at 43%), better strike differential (+3.22 vs +0.53), and reach advantage should allow him to control range, out-land Song, and win minutes over five rounds. Song's durability, strong takedown defense (72%), and power make him dangerous early, but O'Malley's footwork, feints, and shot selection historically hold up well against aggressive boxer-wrestlers, suggesting a higher likelihood of a high-volume striking decision rather than a clean finish.