Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Krylov is on a 4-fight win streak with superior grappling credentials (1.4 sub avg vs 0.2) and better striking differential (+1.91 vs -0.79). His 38% takedown accuracy may seem low, but he attempts 2.29 per fight vs Bukauskas' 0.37. Bukauskas has shown submission vulnerability, losing by sub recently. Krylov's experience edge (61% win rate vs 56%) and finishing ability make him a strong favorite. The identical height negates any size advantage for Bukauskas.

Krylov's higher output, superior offensive grappling, and much stronger submission threat align well against Bukauskas' historically porous defensive metrics and low takedown volume. Krylov's 4.38 SLpM on 55% accuracy with a +1.91 strike differential, combined with 2.29 TDs per fight and 1.4 subs per fight, suggests he can force mixed phases, drag Bukauskas down, and capitalize on grappling exchanges. Bukauskas' negative striking differential and lower grappling output make it unlikely he can consistently keep Krylov off him over three rounds.