- Krylov averages 1.4 submissions per fight vs Bukauskas' 0.2
- Krylov's +1.91 striking differential vs Bukauskas' -0.79 shows dominance
- Krylov attempts 6x more takedowns per fight (2.29 vs 0.37)
- Krylov on 4-fight win streak vs Bukauskas' inconsistent 3-2 recent form
Write-up
Krylov is on a 4-fight win streak with superior grappling credentials (1.4 sub avg vs 0.2) and better striking differential (+1.91 vs -0.79). His 38% takedown accuracy may seem low, but he attempts 2.29 per fight vs Bukauskas' 0.37. Bukauskas has shown submission vulnerability, losing by sub recently. Krylov's experience edge (61% win rate vs 56%) and finishing ability make him a strong favorite. The identical height negates any size advantage for Bukauskas.
- Krylov's superior offensive metrics: higher SLpM, better accuracy, and a strong positive striking differential versus Bukauskas' negative differential.
- Significant grappling edge for Krylov: 2.29 takedowns and 1.4 submissions per fight versus Bukauskas' low takedown volume and limited submission threat.
- Stylistic dynamic favors Krylov in mixed phases: Bukauskas prefers a striking fight at range, but his defense and TDD (71%) may not be sufficient to deter Krylov's persistent takedown and clinch attempts over time.
Write-up
Krylov's higher output, superior offensive grappling, and much stronger submission threat align well against Bukauskas' historically porous defensive metrics and low takedown volume. Krylov's 4.38 SLpM on 55% accuracy with a +1.91 strike differential, combined with 2.29 TDs per fight and 1.4 subs per fight, suggests he can force mixed phases, drag Bukauskas down, and capitalize on grappling exchanges. Bukauskas' negative striking differential and lower grappling output make it unlikely he can consistently keep Krylov off him over three rounds.