Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Gaethje's elite striking volume (6.78 SLPM vs 4.94) and proven power against top competition gives him a decisive edge. While Pimblett showed he can hang with strikers by stopping Chandler, Gaethje's 59% accuracy and leg kick heavy approach will compromise Paddy's movement early. Pimblett's 40% striking defense is concerning against someone who finished Poirier and hurt everyone he's faced. The Liverpudlian's submission threat (2.1 sub avg) could be a factor, but Gaethje's 75% TDD and refusal to accept bottom position makes this unlikely.

Gaethje's proven elite striking, durability, and leg-kick game match up brutally with Pimblett's hittable defense and slower, looping entries. Paddy's path is largely grappling-based, but his 25% TD accuracy and 52% TD defense suggest he'll struggle to consistently get Gaethje down or keep him there, especially against Gaethje's strong hips and scrambling. Over five rounds, Gaethje's pressure, power, and attritional damage (especially to the legs) are likely to overwhelm Paddy before the cards, with Paddy's submission threat diminished by the difficulty of reliably securing top control.