Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Lewis's recent resurgence with 3 TKO victories in his last 5 fights showcases his legendary one-punch power remains intact. Acosta's 48% striking accuracy and absorption of 3.52 strikes per minute creates vulnerability against Lewis's counter-punching style. Lewis's experience edge (41 UFC fights vs Acosta's limited exposure) and proven ability to find the knockout against aggressive strikers who leave openings makes him dangerous. Acosta's volume advantage (5.53 SLPM vs 2.48) could win early exchanges, but Lewis needs just one clean connection.

Despite Cortes Acosta's volume and better strike differential, Lewis' historically elite one-shot power, five-round experience, and proven ability to finish durable heavyweights make him the more dangerous and likely winner in a primarily striking-based matchup. Waldo's tendency to box at mid-range with moderate defensive numbers (55% StrDef, hittable in exchanges) lines up poorly against Lewis' counter right hand and blitz entries. Lewis' lower output is offset by his high impact per landed strike and ability to create chaos late in fights, while Waldo's modest wrestling and limited finishing upside make it unlikely he can safely outpoint or control Lewis over three rounds without getting clipped.