Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Nurmagomedov's perfect 100% takedown defense and superior wrestling (3.98 TD avg at 50% vs Figueiredo's 1.68 at 35%) create a dominant grappling advantage. His striking defense (63%) is significantly better than Figueiredo's (51%), while landing at higher accuracy (63% vs 55%). The 3-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage favor Umar's range management. Figueiredo's recent loss and age disadvantage (37 vs 29) suggest declining athleticism against a prime opponent.

Umar's combination of elite defensive metrics (1.36 SApM, 63% striking defense, 100% TD defense) and high-percentage offense (63% striking accuracy, 3.98 TDs per 15 at 50% accuracy) profiles as a nightmare style matchup for an aging, smaller Figueiredo moving up. Deiveson's offensive danger (1.6 subs per 15, strong power) is offset by his porous defense (51% striking defense, 58% TD defense, negative strike differential) and the likelihood that he is forced to work off his back or defend takedowns and clinch pressure for long stretches. Umar's volume, positional control, and risk-averse approach point to him banking rounds consistently while largely neutralizing Figueiredo's finishing threats.