Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Smotherman's perfect 2-0 UFC record with superior striking metrics (6.25 SLPM vs 4.63) and better defensive striking (60% vs 55%) creates clear advantages. Both share 37% striking accuracy, but Smotherman's higher volume and better defense win exchanges. Turcios' wrestling (0.89 TDAvg) faces Smotherman's 50% TDD, limiting control opportunities. Turcios' recent submission losses (2 in last 5) suggest defensive liabilities Smotherman can exploit. The 27-year-old Smotherman has youth advantage over 31-year-old Turcios. Smotherman's momentum from consecutive wins versus Turcios' 2-3 recent record indicates current form disparity.

Smotherman's higher striking volume, slightly better defensive metrics, and superior striking differential suggest he can outwork Turcios over three rounds, while Turcios' historically mediocre wrestling efficiency and takedown defense make it unlikely he can reliably turn this into a grappling-heavy fight to slow Smotherman's output.