Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Harrison's Olympic-level grappling and perfect takedown defense (100%) presents a unique challenge for Nunes. While Amanda has superior striking experience, Harrison's 3.68 striking differential shows she's developed into a complete fighter. The key will be Harrison's ability to close distance - her 2.75 takedowns per fight with improving striking allows her to mix attacks. Nunes' recent submission loss to Peña exposed vulnerability to persistent grapplers, and Harrison is levels above Peña in pure grappling. Amanda's power remains dangerous, but Harrison's chin hasn't been tested like this.

Harrison's UFC sample shows elite top control, high striking accuracy largely built off her judo-based takedown game, and very low damage absorbed, but the numbers are inflated by favorable stylistic matchups and limited opposition compared to Nunes' historic strength of schedule. Nunes has proven 5-round championship cardio, dangerous power, and a much more layered striking game, with strong defensive wrestling (82% TD defense) and a dangerous submission arsenal that historically punishes grapplers who get stuck in extended exchanges. Harrison's path is heavily control-based: chain takedowns, ride time, and positional dominance. However, Nunes' superior striking, better finishing instincts, and comparable offensive wrestling make it likely she can stuff enough entries, punish Harrison on the breaks, and win the higher-leverage striking moments over 5 rounds. Harrison's control could steal rounds early, but Nunes' experience in long, high-pressure fights and her ability to adjust mid-fight tilt a close, attritional matchup toward Nunes on the cards more often than not.