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UFC 324: Gaethje vs. PimblettWomen's BantamweightMain card
Kayla Harrison
Kayla
Harrison
3-0UFC
35 yrsElo 1577*
VS
Amanda Nunes
Amanda
Nunes
16-2UFC
37 yrsElo 1674
Who wins
Claude
65%
Harrison
GPT
69%
Nunes
Elo
64%
Nunes
1577 vs 1674
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'8" Height 5'8"
66" Reach 69"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
4.87 Landed / min 4.55
1.19 Absorbed / minlower better 2.62
64% Strike accuracy 51%
64% Strike defense 57%
2.75 Takedowns / 15 2.73
30% TD accuracy 54%
100% TD defense 82%
0.7 Subs / 15 0.7
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 20%Claude: Submission 25%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 25%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 32%GPT: Submission 8%GPT: Decision 60%
60%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 32%Submission 8%Decision 60%
Formnewest first
Kayla Harrison231 days out
W
Julianna Pena
SUB Kimura · 2025-06-07
W
Holly Holm
SUB · 2024-04-13
W
Ketlen Vieira
U-DEC · 2024-04-13
Amanda Nunes959 days out
W
Irene Aldana
U-DEC · 2023-06-10
W
Julianna Pena
U-DEC · 2022-07-30
L
Julianna Pena
SUB · 2021-12-11
W
Megan Anderson
SUB · 2021-03-06
W
Felicia Spencer
U-DEC · 2020-06-06
Why
Claude
Kayla Harrison
65% · Decision
  • Harrison's 100% TDD vs Nunes' 82% creates grappling control advantage
  • 3.68 striking differential for Harrison shows evolved striking game
  • Nunes coming off 2.5 year layoff may impact timing and cardio
  • Harrison's size and strength advantage in clinch positions
Write-up

Harrison's Olympic-level grappling and perfect takedown defense (100%) presents a unique challenge for Nunes. While Amanda has superior striking experience, Harrison's 3.68 striking differential shows she's developed into a complete fighter. The key will be Harrison's ability to close distance - her 2.75 takedowns per fight with improving striking allows her to mix attacks. Nunes' recent submission loss to Peña exposed vulnerability to persistent grapplers, and Harrison is levels above Peña in pure grappling. Amanda's power remains dangerous, but Harrison's chin hasn't been tested like this.

GPT
Amanda Nunes
69% · Decision
  • Strength of schedule and proven championship pedigree for Nunes versus Harrison's relatively softer MMA opposition despite strong stats
  • Nunes' superior, more diverse striking game and power edge against Harrison's more linear, takedown-driven approach
  • Nunes' solid takedown defense and dangerous grappling reduce Harrison's ability to dominate with top control for all five rounds
Write-up

Harrison's UFC sample shows elite top control, high striking accuracy largely built off her judo-based takedown game, and very low damage absorbed, but the numbers are inflated by favorable stylistic matchups and limited opposition compared to Nunes' historic strength of schedule. Nunes has proven 5-round championship cardio, dangerous power, and a much more layered striking game, with strong defensive wrestling (82% TD defense) and a dangerous submission arsenal that historically punishes grapplers who get stuck in extended exchanges. Harrison's path is heavily control-based: chain takedowns, ride time, and positional dominance. However, Nunes' superior striking, better finishing instincts, and comparable offensive wrestling make it likely she can stuff enough entries, punish Harrison on the breaks, and win the higher-leverage striking moments over 5 rounds. Harrison's control could steal rounds early, but Nunes' experience in long, high-pressure fights and her ability to adjust mid-fight tilt a close, attritional matchup toward Nunes on the cards more often than not.