- Hernandez performed better against 2 common opponents (50% win rate vs 0%)
- Hernandez averages 0.62 more takedowns per fight with comparable accuracy
- Johnson's poor 39% striking accuracy vs Hernandez's 40% with similar defense
- Hernandez showing better consistency with recent weight class stability
Write-up
Hernandez has momentum with 3-2 recent record including back-to-back wins, while Johnson is inconsistent at 3-2. Common opponent analysis favors Hernandez - he defeated Beneil Dariush by KO while Johnson lost by decision. Hernandez's superior grappling (1.24 TDAvg vs 0.62) and better takedown defense (71% vs 81%) gives him more paths to victory. Johnson's southpaw stance creates interesting dynamics but his 39% striking accuracy is concerning against Hernandez's similar defensive metrics.
- Higher wrestling volume and willingness to mix takedowns from Hernandez (1.24 TD avg vs 0.62)
- Comparable striking output but Johnson's inconsistency in close decisions vs Hernandez's better results against shared opponents
- Johnson's strong takedown defense (81%) likely prevents sustained top control, pushing this toward a high-output striking and clinch-control battle that favors the younger, more aggressive Hernandez on the cards
Write-up
Hernandez is slightly younger, more willing to wrestle (1.24 TD avg vs 0.62), and has historically performed better against common opponents, which should allow him to mix takedowns with pressure striking to edge rounds. Johnson has the cleaner boxing and better takedown defense (81%), but his tendency to give away close rounds and fade in extended exchanges favors Hernandez in a three-round, high-pace fight where volume and cage control likely decide the scorecards.