Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Hernandez has momentum with 3-2 recent record including back-to-back wins, while Johnson is inconsistent at 3-2. Common opponent analysis favors Hernandez - he defeated Beneil Dariush by KO while Johnson lost by decision. Hernandez's superior grappling (1.24 TDAvg vs 0.62) and better takedown defense (71% vs 81%) gives him more paths to victory. Johnson's southpaw stance creates interesting dynamics but his 39% striking accuracy is concerning against Hernandez's similar defensive metrics.

Hernandez is slightly younger, more willing to wrestle (1.24 TD avg vs 0.62), and has historically performed better against common opponents, which should allow him to mix takedowns with pressure striking to edge rounds. Johnson has the cleaner boxing and better takedown defense (81%), but his tendency to give away close rounds and fade in extended exchanges favors Hernandez in a three-round, high-pace fight where volume and cage control likely decide the scorecards.