Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Johnson enters on a 5-fight winning streak with superior recent form (69.2% win rate vs 50%) and better striking metrics. His 5-inch reach advantage and switch stance create defensive puzzles for the orthodox Perez. While Perez has wrestling credentials (2.04 TDAvg vs 0.56), Johnson's 67% TDD and superior striking volume (4.77 SLPM vs 4.19) should control distance. Perez's recent losses include 3 stoppages in his last 5 fights, indicating declining durability. Johnson's consistent decision wins and defensive striking (57% vs 58%) suggest he can weather Perez's power and outpoint him.

Perez's combination of sharper pocket boxing, superior wrestling metrics (2.0 TDs per 15 with 46% accuracy vs Johnson's low-volume, low-accuracy shots), and significantly better takedown defense (77% vs 67%) should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Johnson's higher pace and switch stance look good on paper, but he struggles to translate volume into damage and control against strong wrestle-boxers. Over three rounds, Perez's tighter shot selection, cleaner counters, and ability to bank control time with timely takedowns slightly outpace Johnson's range striking and scrambling, leading to a competitive but clear decision.