Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This rematch heavily favors Dvalishvili based on their first encounter and recent trajectories. Merab's relentless pace (5.84 takedowns per fight) and cardio advantage proved decisive in their 2023 meeting. Since then, Dvalishvili has defeated elite competition including O'Malley twice and Nurmagomedov, while Yan has struggled in close decisions. Merab's 82% takedown defense neutralizes Yan's wrestling, forcing a striking battle where his volume (4.31 SLPM) and pressure overwhelm Yan's technical precision.

Dvalishvili's elite cardio, relentless takedown attempts, and superior defensive metrics give him a stylistic edge. While Yan is the more accurate and high-volume striker, Dvalishvili's pace and wrestling historically neutralize Yan's offense, as seen in their prior matchup and against common opponents. Yan's strong takedown defense will make this close, but Dvalishvili's output and control should sway the judges.