Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a rematch where Santos has already shown he can finish Naimov via TKO. The Tapology data reveals they've fought 3 times recently, with Santos winning 2 of 3 including a TKO victory. Santos' 17-1 record and 5-fight win streak against quality opposition (Yusuff, Marshall) demonstrates elite momentum. His striking volume (4.77 SLPM) and accuracy (46%) combined with superior defense (57% vs 42%) creates a significant striking advantage. Naimov's recent form shows vulnerability to finishes (2 submission losses) and his striking defense has deteriorated.

Santos displays a significant edge in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Naimov absorbs more strikes than he lands and has struggled with defensive efficiency. While Naimov's wrestling could be a factor, Santos' superior striking differential and defensive acumen give him the advantage in a likely standup-heavy contest.