Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Baraniewski's explosive striking volume (12 SLPM vs 8.34) and superior accuracy (66% vs 50%) create a significant offensive advantage. His undefeated 6-0 record with three consecutive TKO victories demonstrates finishing ability. Aslan's recent 1-2 skid including losses to Elekana and Cutelaba suggests vulnerability, particularly given his poor striking defense (64% vs Baraniewski's offense). The 4-inch reach disadvantage for Baraniewski is mitigated by his aggressive pressure style and volume advantage.

Ibo Aslan demonstrates significantly better defensive metrics (64% striking defense, 100% takedown defense) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute compared to Baraniewski, who has a porous 33% striking defense and absorbs double the strikes he lands. While Baraniewski offers higher striking volume and accuracy, his extremely low defensive efficiency leaves him open to counters and sustained damage. Aslan's measured output, strong defense, and proven win rate suggest he will control the pace and outpoint Baraniewski over three rounds.