Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Talbott's significant physical advantages (6-inch height, 6-inch reach) combined with his explosive striking volume (8.38 SLPM vs Cejudo's 3.77) create a challenging matchup for the aging former champion. Cejudo's recent 1-3 skid against top competition, including decision losses to Song and Dvalishvili, indicates declining speed and timing. Talbott's 55% striking accuracy and switch stance versatility will exploit Cejudo's orthodox predictability. While Cejudo's wrestling pedigree remains dangerous, his 32% takedown accuracy and Talbott's 90% takedown defense neutralize this path. Talbott's youth (26 vs 37) and 4-fight UFC win streak suggest he'll overwhelm Cejudo with pace and volume.

Talbott's extremely high striking output (8.38 SLpM) and 55% accuracy pose a major threat to the aging Cejudo, whose striking defense (60%) and volume are solid but lag behind Talbott's pace. Cejudo's wrestling edge is challenged by Talbott's 90% takedown defense, making it difficult for Cejudo to reliably control or ground Talbott. Talbott's youth, durability, and offensive volume should allow him to outpoint Cejudo over three rounds, barring a significant wrestling breakthrough.