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Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2

FINAL: Manuel Torres by KO/TKO Punch
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
Age 31 · Elo 1654
WWWLW
322 days since last fight
vs
Manuel Torres
Manuel Torres
Age 30 · Elo 1583
WLWWW
252 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Grant DawsonManuel Torres
Claude Claude: Grant Dawson 68% Claude: Manuel Torres 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Grant Dawson 35% GPT: Manuel Torres 65% 35% 65% Elo Elo: Grant Dawson 60% Elo: Manuel Torres 40% 60% 40%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Grant DawsonManuel Torres
Strikes landed / min Grant Dawson Strikes landed / min: 3.15 3.15 Manuel Torres Strikes landed / min: 7.17 7.17 Strikes absorbed / min Grant Dawson Strikes absorbed / min: 2.04 2.04 Manuel Torres Strikes absorbed / min: 4.53 4.53 Striking accuracy Grant Dawson Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Manuel Torres Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Striking defense Grant Dawson Striking defense: 45% 45% Manuel Torres Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Grant Dawson Takedowns / 15 min: 3.65 3.65 Manuel Torres Takedowns / 15 min: 2.26 2.26 Takedown defense Grant Dawson Takedown defense: 57% 57% Manuel Torres Takedown defense: 88% 88% Sub attempts / 15 min Grant Dawson Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.2 1.2 Manuel Torres Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 25% 25% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 54% 54% GPT: Submission 11% 11% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Grant Dawson by Decision, 68% confidence

Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.65 takedowns per fight) should neutralize Torres' dangerous striking (7.17 strikes per minute). Torres' recent TKO win over Drew Dober shows his power, but his 52% striking defense and vulnerability to grapplers (lost via submission to unranked opponent) plays into Dawson's strengths. Dawson's 92.8% win rate and 4-fight win streak demonstrate consistency, while Torres' 2-2 UFC record shows inconsistency at the elite level.

GPT
Manuel Torres by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Torres holds a significant edge in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential, while also boasting elite takedown defense (88%) that could neutralize Dawson's primary grappling path. Dawson's grappling and submission skills are strong, but Torres' offensive output and defensive metrics suggest he can keep the fight standing and overwhelm Dawson, whose striking defense is below average.