Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Turner's significant physical advantages (4" height, 2" reach) combined with his superior grappling threat (1.1 sub avg vs 0.1) create a difficult matchup for the aging Barboza. While Barboza has performed better against common opponents historically, Turner's recent losses have come against elite competition (Moicano, Bahamondes). Turner's 74% TDD neutralizes Barboza's limited wrestling, while his submission game poses constant threats. Barboza's 1-3 record in his last 4 fights at age 38 suggests decline, particularly in his defensive metrics (56% strike defense).

Turner holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and finishing ability. While Barboza's experience and striking defense are notable, Turner's reach, higher strike differential, and potent submission game present stylistic challenges. Barboza's recent trend of absorbing more strikes than he lands, combined with Turner's aggressive output and youth, make Turner the likely winner, with KO/TKO the most probable outcome.