Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Duncan's momentum (4-1 last 5 fights) and superior grappling efficiency make him the pick despite McKinney's explosiveness. McKinney's 50% win rate and recent knockout losses show defensive vulnerabilities, while Duncan's 80% win rate demonstrates consistency. Duncan's recent submission wins and McKinney's submission loss to Ismael Bonfim suggest a grappling path to victory. McKinney's aggressive style (4.53 strikes per minute) often leaves him exposed to counters and takedowns.

McKinney holds a clear grappling and submission threat advantage, with a much higher takedown defense (85% vs 33%) and a greater submission average (1.0 vs 0.3). While both have similar striking output and accuracy, Duncan absorbs more strikes (SApM 4.0 vs 2.63) and is vulnerable to being taken down. McKinney's ability to mix in takedowns and capitalize on Duncan's poor takedown defense is likely to open up submission opportunities early.