Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Blachowicz's veteran experience and superior grappling create a clear path to victory. While Guskov shows promise with recent KO wins, his 18-3 record comes largely from regional competition. Blachowicz's 2-inch reach advantage, proven UFC durability, and 50% takedown accuracy against Guskov's 66% takedown defense suggests he can mix striking with wrestling to control the fight. Guskov's striking defense (47%) is concerning against a former champion who lands 3.41 strikes per minute.

Blachowicz holds key statistical advantages in both striking defense and grappling. His striking differential (+0.5) is superior to Guskov's (-0.57), and he maintains higher accuracy (50% vs 48%) and better defensive efficiency (53% vs 47%). Blachowicz's takedown ability and 68% takedown defense further expand his paths to victory against a fighter who has shown no grappling threat. Guskov's higher strikes absorbed per minute (3.7) leaves him vulnerable over three rounds.