Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Pantoja's championship experience and submission prowess (0.8 subs per fight) present a massive challenge for the rising Van. While Van boasts impressive volume (8.39 SLPM), his 83% takedown defense hasn't been tested by an elite grappler like Pantoja. The champion's recent submission victories over Kara-France and Asakura demonstrate his ability to find the neck against aggressive strikers. Van's aggressive style and 58% striking defense leave openings for Pantoja's level changes and scrambles.

Pantoja's championship-level experience, grappling control, and proven durability give him the edge over Van's high-volume striking, especially over five rounds. While Van is the more active striker and has better defensive stats, Pantoja's ability to mix in takedowns and threaten with submissions is likely to nullify Van's offense and control the pace of the fight.