Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Zhang Weili moving up to flyweight presents an intriguing matchup. While Shevchenko has the experience advantage at 125lbs, Zhang's superior striking volume (5.66 vs 3.16 SLPM) and recent momentum give her the edge. Both fighters went to decisions with common opponents Andrade and Joanna, but Zhang finished Joanna while Valentina went to decision. Zhang's 4-fight win streak including finishes over elite competition shows she's peaked at the right time. Shevchenko's recent losses to Grasso suggest vulnerability to aggressive strikers, which plays into Zhang's style.

Shevchenko's superior defensive metrics and efficient striking, combined with a significant edge in takedown defense and tactical experience, should allow her to neutralize Zhang's high-volume offense and dictate the pace through counter-striking and positional control. Zhang's offensive output and submission threat are notable, but Shevchenko's composure, shot selection, and historically high fight IQ favor her in a competitive, high-level bout.