Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is an unusual matchup with Makhachev moving up to welterweight. Despite the weight class change, Makhachev's elite grappling and submission game should overwhelm Della Maddalena. Jack has shown vulnerability to grapplers (70% TDD) and Makhachev averages 3.19 takedowns per fight with a 53% accuracy rate. The size difference won't be enough to overcome the massive grappling disparity. Makhachev's 1.1 submissions per fight and recent submission victories over elite competition make him the clear favorite despite moving up in weight.

Islam Makhachev's elite grappling, superior takedown average (3.19 per fight), and high takedown accuracy (53%) present significant stylistic challenges for Jack Della Maddalena, who defends takedowns at just 70% and has minimal offensive wrestling. While Maddalena's striking output is high (6.74 SLPM, 53% accuracy), Makhachev's defensive proficiency and ability to dictate where the fight takes place should neutralize Maddalena's main weapons, leading to a clear decision victory.