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Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev

FINAL: Gregory Rodrigues by U-DEC
Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov
Age 34 · Elo 1548
LWLWW
119 days since last fight
vs
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Age 33 · Elo 1626
WLWWW
140 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Roman KopylovGregory Rodrigues
Claude Claude: Roman Kopylov 35% Claude: Gregory Rodrigues 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Roman Kopylov 30% GPT: Gregory Rodrigues 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: Roman Kopylov 39% Elo: Gregory Rodrigues 61% 39% 61%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Roman KopylovGregory Rodrigues
Strikes landed / min Roman Kopylov Strikes landed / min: 4.74 4.74 Gregory Rodrigues Strikes landed / min: 5.53 5.53 Strikes absorbed / min Roman Kopylov Strikes absorbed / min: 5.08 5.08 Gregory Rodrigues Strikes absorbed / min: 4.78 4.78 Striking accuracy Roman Kopylov Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Gregory Rodrigues Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Striking defense Roman Kopylov Striking defense: 53% 53% Gregory Rodrigues Striking defense: 50% 50% Takedowns / 15 min Roman Kopylov Takedowns / 15 min: 1.02 1.02 Gregory Rodrigues Takedowns / 15 min: 1.90 1.90 Takedown defense Roman Kopylov Takedown defense: 87% 87% Gregory Rodrigues Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min Roman Kopylov Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Gregory Rodrigues Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 35% 35% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 55% 55% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Gregory Rodrigues by Decision, 65% confidence

Rodrigues' superior striking volume (5.52 vs 4.74 SLPM), better accuracy (56% vs 50%), and positive striking differential (+0.83 vs -0.34) give him clear advantages in the standup. His 100% takedown defense will nullify Kopylov's wrestling attempts. Rodrigues is on a 4-fight win streak showing excellent form, while Kopylov's recent submission loss to Fluffy Hernandez exposed grappling vulnerabilities. The 3-inch height advantage for Rodrigues adds another dimension.

GPT
Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO, 70% confidence

Rodrigues holds a statistical edge in striking accuracy, volume, and striking differential, while also boasting superior grappling metrics and an impeccable takedown defense. Kopylov is hittable and has a negative strike differential, making him vulnerable to Rodrigues's power and output. Given Rodrigues's ability to mix in takedowns and control exchanges, he is likely to find a finish if the fight becomes a firefight.