Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This southpaw vs southpaw grappling battle heavily favors Meerschaert's experience and recent form. His 3-fight submission streak shows peak grappling form, while Daukaus has been finished in 2 of his last 3 fights by strikes. Against common opponents, both went 1-2, but Meerschaert's submission of Stoltzfus demonstrates superior finishing ability. Meerschaert's 59% win rate vastly exceeds Daukaus's 29%, and his 116-day average between fights shows better activity. The 11% striking defense gap favors Meerschaert, crucial in setting up grappling entries.

Daukaus has superior takedown defense (82% vs 42%) and striking accuracy (52% vs 45%), which should allow him to control the range and avoid Meerschaert's submission threats. Both are submission-oriented grapplers, but Daukaus is less likely to be taken down and has a positive striking differential, compared to Meerschaert's negative. Meerschaert is dangerous on the ground but relies more on grappling exchanges, which Daukaus can likely limit.