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UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. MakhachevWomen's FlyweightPrelims
Erin BlanchfieldWINNER
Erin
Blanchfield
6-2UFC
26 yrsElo 1597
VS
Tracy Cortez
Tracy
Cortez
6-1UFC
31 yrsElo 1567
Final: Erin Blanchfield by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
68%
Blanchfield
GPT
75%
Blanchfield
Elo
54%
Blanchfield
1597 vs 1567
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'4" Height 5'5"
66" Reach 65"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
5.24 Landed / min 3.72
4.25 Absorbed / minlower better 3.02
44% Strike accuracy 47%
58% Strike defense 57%
1.96 Takedowns / 15 2.09
34% TD accuracy 45%
78% TD defense 62%
0.9 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 15%Claude: Submission 25%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 25%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 5%GPT: Submission 20%GPT: Decision 75%
75%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 5%Submission 20%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Erin Blanchfield378 days out
L
win
· 2024-11-02
L
Manon Fiorot
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
W
Taila Santos
U-DEC · 2023-08-26
W
Jessica Andrade
SUB · 2023-02-18
W
Molly McCann
SUB · 2022-11-12
Tracy Cortez140 days out
W
Viviane Araujo
U-DEC · 2025-06-28
L
Rose Namajunas
U-DEC · 2024-02-03
W
Jasmine Jasudavicius
U-DEC · 2023-09-16
W
Melissa Gatto
U-DEC · 2022-05-07
W
Justine Kish
S-DEC · 2021-04-17
Why
Claude
Erin Blanchfield
68% · Decision
  • 47% striking volume advantage with comparable accuracy (45% vs 47%)
  • Superior submission threat creating defensive liabilities for Cortez
  • 19% better takedown defense (81% vs 62%) neutralizing Cortez's wrestling
  • Youth and athleticism advantage at 25 vs 31 years old
Write-up

Blanchfield's superior striking volume (5.47 vs 3.72 SLPM) and better striking differential (+1.13 vs +0.70) give her a significant edge in exchanges. Her 81% takedown defense should neutralize Cortez's wrestling, while her submission threat (1.0 vs 0.3 per fight) creates constant danger on the ground. Blanchfield's recent losses came against elite competition (likely Grasso/Shevchenko level), while Cortez has struggled against top-tier opponents. The 50-50 community split suggests uncertainty, but the statistical advantages clearly favor Blanchfield.

GPT
Erin Blanchfield
75% · Decision
  • Higher striking volume and differential for Blanchfield
  • Superior takedown defense and submission average
  • Cortez's lower output and finish rate
Write-up

Blanchfield holds significant statistical advantages in striking volume, defensive efficiency, and takedown defense. While Cortez is a capable grappler with solid accuracy, Blanchfield's higher output, strong takedown defense (81% vs. 62%), and submission threat make her more likely to control the fight's pace and location, especially over three rounds. Cortez's lower finish rate and striking output suggest she is less likely to sway judges or find a finish.