Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Blanchfield's superior striking volume (5.47 vs 3.72 SLPM) and better striking differential (+1.13 vs +0.70) give her a significant edge in exchanges. Her 81% takedown defense should neutralize Cortez's wrestling, while her submission threat (1.0 vs 0.3 per fight) creates constant danger on the ground. Blanchfield's recent losses came against elite competition (likely Grasso/Shevchenko level), while Cortez has struggled against top-tier opponents. The 50-50 community split suggests uncertainty, but the statistical advantages clearly favor Blanchfield.

Blanchfield holds significant statistical advantages in striking volume, defensive efficiency, and takedown defense. While Cortez is a capable grappler with solid accuracy, Blanchfield's higher output, strong takedown defense (81% vs. 62%), and submission threat make her more likely to control the fight's pace and location, especially over three rounds. Cortez's lower finish rate and striking output suggest she is less likely to sway judges or find a finish.