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Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal

Featherweight · Prelims · UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev

FINAL: Pat Sabatini by U-DEC
Pat Sabatini
Pat Sabatini
Age 35 · Elo 1599
WWLWL
224 days since last fight
vs
Chepe Mariscal
Chepe Mariscal
Age 33 · Elo 1587
WWWWW
259 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Pat SabatiniChepe Mariscal
Claude Claude: Pat Sabatini 32% Claude: Chepe Mariscal 68% 32% 68% GPT GPT: Pat Sabatini 31% GPT: Chepe Mariscal 69% 31% 69% Elo Elo: Pat Sabatini 52% Elo: Chepe Mariscal 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Pat SabatiniChepe Mariscal
Strikes landed / min Pat Sabatini Strikes landed / min: 1.94 1.94 Chepe Mariscal Strikes landed / min: 4.14 4.14 Strikes absorbed / min Pat Sabatini Strikes absorbed / min: 1.47 1.47 Chepe Mariscal Strikes absorbed / min: 2.66 2.66 Striking accuracy Pat Sabatini Striking accuracy: 59% 59% Chepe Mariscal Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Striking defense Pat Sabatini Striking defense: 48% 48% Chepe Mariscal Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Pat Sabatini Takedowns / 15 min: 3.97 3.97 Chepe Mariscal Takedowns / 15 min: 2.34 2.34 Takedown defense Pat Sabatini Takedown defense: 50% 50% Chepe Mariscal Takedown defense: 59% 59% Sub attempts / 15 min Pat Sabatini Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.0 2.0 Chepe Mariscal Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 11% 11% GPT: Decision 71% 71%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Chepe Mariscal by Decision, 68% confidence

Mariscal's superior striking volume (4.75 vs 1.94 SLPM) and better striking differential (+1.51 vs +0.47) give him a clear edge in the standup. While Sabatini is the superior grappler with 2.0 submissions per fight, Mariscal's 72% takedown defense and perfect 5-0 recent record suggest he can keep the fight standing. Mariscal also holds a significant advantage through their common opponent Damon Jackson - Mariscal won by decision while Sabatini was knocked out.

GPT
Chepe Mariscal by Decision, 69% confidence

Mariscal's significantly higher striking volume (4.75 SLpM vs. 1.94), effective striking differential (+1.51 vs. +0.47), and superior takedown defense (72% vs. 50%) suggest he can keep the fight standing and outwork Sabatini over three rounds. Sabatini's submission threat is notable, but Mariscal's proven durability and grappling defense make a finish less likely.