Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Edwards' championship-level experience and technical striking should overcome Prates' aggressive style. While Prates has shown devastating knockout power (4 straight KO/TKO wins before his recent loss), Edwards' superior defensive metrics (53% striking defense vs 48%) and southpaw stance will create awkward angles. Edwards' reach disadvantage (-4 inches) is concerning, but his movement and fight IQ have allowed him to neutralize longer opponents before. The key will be Edwards weathering early storms and implementing his measured, technical approach as Prates fades.

Edwards' superior defensive metrics, striking differential, and well-roundedness give him an edge against Prates, who absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands and has a negative striking differential. Edwards' experience, composure, and ability to mix in grappling should allow him to neutralize Prates' offensive output and control the pace en route to a clear decision.